Sunday, April 29, 2018

A Quick Peek at Peak Oil: The Faster We Go, the Behinder We Get

April 29, 2018

All data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2017 unless stated otherwise:

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review-2017/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2017-full-report.pdf

Jean Laherrère (2013) has a famous graph (see attached) showing peak oil occurring roughly in 2015. He mentions what he calls a "bumpy plateau," the shape that is formed on a graph around that peak.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/10009#more

In Tumbling Tide (2014), pp. 14-15, I said, "At the moment about 30 billion barrels of oil are produced annually, and that is probably close to the maximum that will ever be possible."

According to BP's latest (2017) Statistical Review, in 2016 (the latest date available) global production was 92,150,000 barrels a day, which is 33.6 billion a year. Such a figure does not represent a deviation from Laherrère's graph. We are still on that "bumpy plateau."

The US is now the world's leading producer of oil. In spite of fracking and other technological marvels (all of which have low net energy), however, US production is still only 13 percent of global production. In addition, US production declined by 3 percent between 2015 and 2016. At the same time, 34 other countries also had declines in production.

No matter how the numbers are juggled, it's getting harder and harder every year to "keep up appearances."

Invest in anti-gravity machines. It's the best tip I can give you.








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